On Holding AG
Thesis
On Holding operates in a large market with significant growth potential, especially as it focuses on enhancing athletic performance and expanding into new activities. With Nike's growth stagnating, On has the opportunity to capture market share and double its earnings over the next few years, potentially leading to a much higher valuation compared to Nike.
Did it work?
inconclusive
confidence: low
The pitch is a long thesis on On Holding predicated on doubling earnings over 'the next few years' and re-rating toward a higher valuation. With no price performance data and an unknown elapsed time, there is no way to verify either the earnings-doubling catalyst or the valuation outcome. The thesis events cannot be confirmed or invalidated, so the verdict remains open.