Valvoline, Inc.

The pitch was a long thesis on Valvoline premised on its solid market position and growth potential in automotive services, but the stock has declined 23.0% over the 28 months since the pitch. With more than two years elapsed — a period long enough to evaluate a typical equity thesis — the negative return directly contradicts the long direction and shows the promised growth thesis did not translate into shareholder returns. There is no indication of a stated longer-dated target that would warrant treating this drawdown as interim noise.