Clear Channel Outdoor Holdings, Inc.
Thesis
The team recommended purchasing Clear Channel senior secured term loans, which were trading at forty cents on the dollar, implying an enterprise value of $6.7 billion. They calculated the firm's value at a minimum of $12 billion, suggesting a potential IRR of 30% per year over three to five years, indicating significant upside.
Did it work?
The thesis was a long distressed-debt bet that Clear Channel senior secured term loans at 40 cents on the dollar were deeply undervalued, with a stated 30% annual IRR over 3-5 years (roughly +120% to +270% cumulative). The actual +485% return far exceeds even the thesis's own implied recovery to fair value and its IRR target, decisively confirming the undervaluation call. Even if the holding period were longer than the stated horizon, the magnitude of the gain validates the core thesis dynamics.