Apollo Group, Inc.
Thesis
The team argued that Apollo Group's growth in Associate degrees, which have lower tuition and higher default rates, poses a significant risk to its revenue, with 80% at risk due to Title IV eligibility review. They believe that both students and investors are 'paying more and getting less' with APOL, making it a poor investment.
Did it work?
No price performance data is available and the time elapsed since the pitch is unknown, so the short thesis cannot be judged against actual returns. The thesis hinges on a Title IV eligibility review threatening ~80% of revenue and deteriorating unit economics from Associate-degree growth, but there is no information confirming whether that regulatory event materialized or how the stock responded. Without either price data or verifiable thesis catalysts, no verdict on success or failure is possible.