Exelon Corporation
Thesis
Exelon is the nation's largest merchant nuclear fleet and offers the lowest-cost source of power. A recent transaction valued Exelon's nuclear assets at approximately $55 per share, and when factoring in its regulated utility businesses, the intrinsic value is estimated to be around $66, representing a more than 20% discount to intrinsic value.
Did it work?
The long thesis argued Exelon traded at a >20% discount to an estimated ~$66 intrinsic value, implying roughly 20-25% upside as the gap closed. The +23.1% return over 31 months is almost exactly the magnitude of that stated discount, indicating the stock converged toward the estimated intrinsic value and validating the core valuation-gap thesis. Confidence is medium rather than high because the pitch did not state an explicit horizon and Exelon's subsequent separation of its nuclear business complicates direct price comparability.