Care Investment Trust
Thesis
I propose a long position in the common shares of Care Investment Trust as the stock is meaningfully undervalued on the basis of its assets and near-term catalysts leading to value realization are probable. The company is trading at 63% of book value and 70% of estimated NAV, with a strong balance sheet and liquidity position, and a dividend yield of 10%.
Did it work?
The thesis called for near-term catalysts to drive value realization from a stock trading at 63% of book value, but instead the shares declined 40.5% over the ~17 years since the pitch — the opposite of the predicted outcome. The claimed undervaluation and 10% dividend yield did not translate into value realization, and the 'near-term' catalysts clearly never materialized. With the entire stated horizon long past and a decisively negative return against a long position, the thesis is broken.