Amedisys, Inc.
Thesis
The current AMED share price implies little to no revenue growth due to concerns over Medicare reimbursement reform. However, Amedisys is positioned for growth through acquisitions, a strong pipeline of startup agencies, and improved operational efficiencies. The company is expected to maintain or even expand margins, presenting a buying opportunity for investors.
Did it work?
The thesis was a long bet that Amedisys would grow through acquisitions, de novo agency startups, and margin expansion despite Medicare reimbursement fears. Instead, the stock declined 88.9% over the ~17 years since the pitch, a catastrophic loss that decisively contradicts the projected growth and margin resilience. With far more time elapsed than any reasonable horizon implied by the thesis, this is a clear failure.