Hewlett Packard
Thesis
Hewlett Packard is a strong cash flow generating, market-leading company that is being punished by the market for recent company announcements and multiple CEO changes. The sell off has been overdone, with HP stock moving from the year high of $50 to the recent low at $22 in September. The current price of $28 represents an opportunity to buy HP with a 45% margin of safety to its intrinsic value of $51, indicating an 83% upside.
Did it work?
The long thesis argued HP was oversold at $28 with 83% upside to an intrinsic value of $51. The stock returned +86.8% since the pitch, implying a price of roughly $52 — exceeding the stated intrinsic value target. The core claim (market overreaction to CEO churn and announcements, followed by re-rating toward fair value) has been decisively confirmed by the price surpassing the thesis's own target, regardless of elapsed time.