Winter 2017

Issue 29 · analyzed

24 ideas

position long inconclusive
ADNT Adient plc

Adient is the largest manufacturer of auto seating and is viewed as a misunderstood business with significant competitive barriers. The company is expected to benefit from the shift towards autonomous vehicles and has op…

position long inconclusive
CHL China Mobile Limited

China Mobile is a dominant wireless carrier in China with over 750 million subscribers and a 66% market share. The company is expected to benefit from the increasing data usage as consumers migrate to smartphones, and it…

position long inconclusive
ML Michelin

Michelin has strong pricing power in the tire market, particularly for high-end vehicles. Despite concerns about the cyclical nature of the auto industry, tires are a consumable product that need to be replaced regardles…

position long inconclusive
FNF Fidelity National Financial, Inc.

Fidelity National Financial operates in a consolidated industry providing necessary title insurance services. The company's CEO, Bill Foley, has a strong track record of creating value through strategic asset management …

position long worked
+217.4%
AIZ Assurant, Inc.

Assurant is a niche insurer that has shown resilience and adaptability in its business model. With a new CEO from outside the industry, the company is focusing on profitable niches and has a history of share repurchases …

pitch short
CATM Cardtronics plc
2016 Darden @ Virginia Investing Challenge

The short thesis for Cardtronics is based on declining cash usage, limited growth opportunities, and the loss of its largest customer, which will increase competition. The company is trading near its 52-week high and is …

pitch long inconclusive
CSV Carriage Services, Inc.
The Heilbrunn Center for Graham & Dodd Investing Challenge

Carriage Services is well-positioned to benefit from demographic tailwinds as the Baby Boomer generation ages and passes away, leading to increased demand for funeral and cemetery services. The company operates in a cons…

position long inconclusive
null Soho House

The senior secured 2018 bonds of Soho House offer a compelling risk-adjusted return due to the stable, recurring revenue nature of the business, which has a growing member base and low churn. Despite being perceived as h…

pitch long worked
+166.4%
EWBC East West Bancorp, Inc.
null

East West Bank (EWBC) is positioned as a relationship bank with a strong track record of financial performance and a diversified loan portfolio. The bank's expertise in facilitating business between Chinese and American …

position long inconclusive
AEE Ameren Corporation
null

Ameren (AEE) is a regulated utility with a history of good returns, but it faced challenges during the financial crisis when it cut its dividend, leading to a sharp stock sell-off. The new management's plan to focus on e…

position long inconclusive
MSFT Microsoft Corporation

Rupal Bhansali views Microsoft as an enterprise staple deserving of a valuation multiple similar to consumer staples. Despite market perceptions of Microsoft as a high-risk technology company, Bhansali believes its domin…

position long
ValorBridge

ValorBridge focuses on earlier-stage healthcare companies that target niche markets, leveraging existing relationships to accelerate growth. They also invest in established businesses with superior management teams that …

position long
OpenTable

ValorBridge owns a web-based scheduling company for emergency rooms that functions similarly to OpenTable, allowing patients to schedule ER visits, which enhances efficiency and patient experience.

position long
TransDigm

TransDigm is highlighted for its ability to run at higher levels of leverage due to stable revenue growth in the aftermarket aerospace sector, which compounds equity growth over time.

position long
Liberty

Liberty is mentioned as a company that effectively uses leverage to compound equity growth, benefiting from stable revenue growth in the cable industry.

position long
Industrial Distribution and Service Company

ValorBridge owns stakes in an industrial distribution and service company for gas stations and fuel depots, which is expected to grow free cash flow based on superior management.

position long
Distressed Consumer Credit Portfolio Company

ValorBridge invests in a company that buys distressed consumer credit portfolios from banks at low prices, managing the collections process to generate returns.

position long
Industrial Gas Distribution Company

ValorBridge holds passive stakes in an industrial gas distribution company, which is part of their strategy to invest in established businesses with growth potential.

position long
Largest Manufacturer of Wine Bottle Closures

ValorBridge has a stake in the largest manufacturer of wine bottle closures, indicating a focus on established companies with solid growth prospects.

position long
OSB Norbord Inc.

Norbord is a Canadian-listed company with a significant portion of its operations and profits tied to the housing rebound in the U.S., making it an attractive investment opportunity.

pitch short failed
+58.7%
FL Foot Locker, Inc.
The Heilbrunn Center for Investing Stock Challenge

Foot Locker is facing significant challenges as its largest supplier, Nike, shifts focus towards direct-to-consumer sales, which threatens Foot Locker's inventory advantage. Additionally, the average sale prices for bask…

pitch short inconclusive
FL Foot Locker, Inc.
null

Foot Locker is facing significant challenges due to its reliance on Nike, which accounts for 73% of its sales. A decline in Nike's average selling prices (ASPs) and market share will directly impact Foot Locker's gross m…

pitch long inconclusive
AXTA Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
null

Axalta is an undervalued coatings company with a strong market position and durable competitive advantages. The company generates significant free cash flow and is expected to achieve GDP+ sales growth due to its focus o…

pitch long partial
+21.5%
AXTA Axalta Coating Systems Ltd.
The Heilbrunn Center for Investing Stock Challenge

Axalta is positioned to benefit from its strong market position in the coatings industry, with a diversified customer base and ongoing cost-cutting initiatives that are expected to enhance margins. The company has a soli…