Meta Platforms, Inc.
Thesis
Facebook is not an expensive stock given its earnings potential, with estimates of over $3 per share next year. The company has significant assets like Instagram and WhatsApp that have not yet been monetized, presenting a large opportunity for future growth.
Did it work?
The long thesis decisively played out: the stock returned +631.7%, an enormous gain that far exceeds any reasonable expectation implied by the pitch. The core thesis elements were validated — earnings grew well beyond the ~$3/share estimate, and Instagram and WhatsApp were successfully monetized through advertising, Reels, and business messaging, driving the re-rating the thesis anticipated. Given the magnitude of the return and confirmation of the thesis's key catalysts, the verdict is clear despite the unknown elapsed time.