Altice S.A.
Thesis
Altice S.A. is positioned for significant upside due to its strong competitive advantages in the cable and telecom sectors across France and Portugal. With a target price of €180 representing nearly 80% upside, the company is expected to benefit from market consolidation and operational efficiencies under the leadership of Patrick Drahi, who is a proven capital allocator. The company's low broadband penetration and ownership of mobile networks further enhance its profitability potential.
Did it work?
The thesis is decisively invalidated by well-documented history: Altice S.A. (later renamed Altice Europe) never remotely approached the €180 target and instead collapsed under roughly €50 billion of debt from Drahi's debt-fueled acquisitions of SFR, Portugal Telecom, and US cable assets. From the implied pitch price of ~€100 (a €180 target equals ~80% upside), the shares fell steeply, crashing in 2017 amid leverage and integration concerns, and Drahi ultimately took the company private and delisted it in 2021, squeezing out minorities at a fraction of the pitch price. The core premises — Drahi as a proven capital allocator and consolidation driving upside — were contradicted by leverage-driven value destruction, making this a clear failure over the ~8.6 years elapsed.