American International Group, Inc.
Thesis
AIG is very cheap, trading at around $54 while its book value per share is $70. The company has the potential to be an above-average business due to its global scale, and it should at least trade at book value, providing a margin of safety for investors.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis argued AIG at ~$54 was cheap and should re-rate to at least book value of ~$70/share, implying roughly +30% upside. The actual return of +42.5% takes the stock to approximately $77, above the thesis's own stated fair-value anchor of $70, meaning the core valuation gap the pitch identified has closed and then some. The price move decisively confirms the thesis regardless of elapsed time.