JetBlue Airways Corporation
Thesis
JetBlue is expected to exceed management's conservative guidance for additional operating income through initiatives like Fare Families and Cabin Refresh, which will significantly enhance revenue and ROIC. The implementation of an overbooking policy could further improve load factors and profitability. With a target price of $26.42, the stock presents a compelling upside based on its valuation metrics.
Did it work?
The long thesis on JetBlue decisively failed: instead of rising toward the $26.42 target, the stock declined 80.8% over roughly 10.75 years, far exceeding any reasonable horizon for the pitch. The anticipated revenue drivers (Fare Families, Cabin Refresh, overbooking) clearly did not translate into sustained profitability or valuation upside, as the company's competitive position and returns deteriorated over the decade. A loss of this magnitude over this duration leaves no ambiguity that the thesis did not play out.