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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Winter 2015

First Solar, Inc.

FSLR pitch short Kirill Aleksandrov

Thesis

First Solar is facing significant headwinds due to declining average selling prices (ASP) and a saturated U.S. utility-scale market. The expiration of the Investment Tax Credit (ITC) will further pressure pricing, and increasing competition will make it difficult for FSLR to maintain revenue levels. The projected decline in project volumes and margins suggests a price target of $30, representing a downside of approximately 25%.

Did it work?

failed confidence: high

The short thesis predicted a ~25% decline to $30 on falling ASPs, ITC expiration, and a saturated utility-scale market. Instead, over the ~11.6 years since the pitch, FSLR rose roughly 400-500% (the -408.6% figure reflects the short position's loss, implying the stock multiplied about fivefold), as the ITC was extended rather than expiring and solar demand, plus later IRA subsidies, drove massive growth. The thesis dynamics were decisively invalidated, and the stated horizon has long since elapsed.