AerCap Holdings N.V.
Thesis
AerCap's business model is less credit-sensitive than perceived, as it can repossess airplanes and find new renters easily. The acquisition of ILFC has significantly boosted earnings, with projections of $4.95 per share this year, making it an attractive investment.
Did it work?
The core thesis events did occur: AerCap completed the ILFC acquisition, earnings were substantially boosted, and adjusted EPS ultimately exceeded the $4.95 projection, while the company demonstrated it could repossess and re-lease aircraft through downturns. However, with no price performance data and unknown time elapsed, the actual investment return cannot be verified, and the stock did experience credit-fear-driven selloffs at points that complicate the 'less credit-sensitive' claim. On balance the fundamental thesis played out, but confidence is low given the missing price evidence.