Amazon.com, Inc.
Thesis
Bill Ackman expresses a strong belief in being short Herbalife, suggesting that if the best arguments against it are not convincing, he would want to increase his short position. He highlights Amazon as a formidable competitor in retail, indicating a cautious stance towards retail investments due to Amazon's dominance.
Did it work?
Ackman's Herbalife short became one of the most famous failed activist shorts: after initiating in late 2012, the stock rose sharply against him, he waged a costly multi-year battle (notably against Carl Icahn), and he exited the position in early 2018 at a reported loss of roughly $1 billion without the collapse he predicted. While the FTC's 2016 settlement did label Herbalife a pyramid scheme, the company survived and the short thesis never played out during his holding period. With no price data or timeline provided, confidence is low, but the known outcome of the thesis events points to failure.