First Solar, Inc.
Thesis
First Solar is facing significant headwinds due to increasing competition in the solar industry and potential regulatory changes that could impact its profitability. The company's reliance on government incentives and its inability to maintain market share against lower-cost competitors raise concerns about its future earnings potential.
Did it work?
The short thesis on First Solar has clearly played out, as evidenced by a dramatic price decline of 377.2% over 138 months. The anticipated headwinds from competition and regulatory changes have materialized, significantly impacting the company's profitability and market share. This substantial negative return aligns with the thesis that First Solar would struggle in a competitive landscape.
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