B&M European Value Retail SA
Thesis
B&M is an over-hyped IPO story stock, trading at high multiples that discount overly optimistic assumptions about market share in a saturated UK market. The competition is intensifying, which will likely drive down margins, and the stock lock-up expiration in December 2014 adds further risk.
Did it work?
B&M's share price rose approximately +98.9% since the pitch, nearly doubling over ~12 years — the opposite of what the short thesis required. Despite concerns about high multiples, a saturated UK market, intensifying competition, and the December 2014 lock-up expiration, the company sustained and grew its valuation dramatically over a period far exceeding any reasonable thesis horizon. The thesis dynamics clearly did not play out, and shorts would have faced substantial losses (amplified by dividends).