B&M European Value Retail
Thesis
B&M European Value Retail is overvalued based on its current earnings and market conditions. The company faces significant competition and potential headwinds in the retail sector that could impact its profitability.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The pitch was a short based on overvaluation and retail headwinds, but over the ~12 years since, B&M's stock rose 11.8%, meaning a short position would have lost money. While the gain was modest (~0.8% annualized, suggesting the stock stagnated rather than re-rated upward strongly), the price direction moved opposite to the short thesis. With far more than any reasonable stated horizon elapsed and the thesis dynamics (competitive pressure driving the shares down) not materializing, the pitch clearly failed.