XPO Logistics, Inc.

XPO pitch long Justin Hong, Zachary Rieger, Cristóbal Silva

Thesis

XPO Logistics is positioned for significant growth following its recent acquisitions of Norbert Dentressangle and Con-way, which are expected to enhance its market position and operational efficiency. The company is entering an integration phase that will likely lead to improved free cash flow and return on invested capital, justifying a target price of $48 based on a DCF and sum-of-the-parts analysis.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The long thesis on XPO Logistics has significantly played out, with the stock appreciating by 786.5% over the 136 months since the pitch. The successful integration of acquisitions and the resulting operational efficiencies likely contributed to this substantial growth, aligning with the thesis's expectations for improved free cash flow and return on invested capital.

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