Vantage Drilling Company
Thesis
Vantage Drilling owns the newest deep water fleet in the country, with seven of the hundred deep water drilling platforms globally. The bonds are currently undervalued at around $30, while the drilling platforms are worth significantly more, suggesting a potential for substantial returns if oil prices recover.
Did it work?
The long thesis argued Vantage Drilling's bonds at ~$30 were undervalued relative to the replacement value of its deepwater fleet, with upside contingent on an oil price recovery. Instead, the position returned -100%, meaning the bonds were wiped out entirely — an outcome consistent with bankruptcy/restructuring that rendered the asset-value cushion worthless. A total loss decisively invalidates the thesis regardless of how much time has elapsed since the pitch.