Marriott International, Inc.
Thesis
Marriott announced a deal to acquire Starwood Hotels at $70, which is lower than the expected break-up value, indicating a potential opportunity for investors if the market reacts positively to the acquisition.
Did it work?
The thesis events largely played out: after Marriott's initial offer valuing Starwood at roughly $70 per share, a competing bid emerged and Marriott raised its terms, with the deal ultimately closing in September 2016 at approximately $79-80 per Starwood share — confirming the pitch that $70 was below Starwood's standalone/break-up value. A long position in Starwood around the announcement would have captured that upside. However, with no price data and unknown time elapsed, this verdict rests on the deal outcome rather than measured returns, so confidence is limited.