XPO Logistics, Inc.
Thesis
XPO Logistics is a strong buy with a target price of $48 per share, representing approximately 115% upside. The company benefits from a phenomenal CEO, a performance-driven culture, and significant growth opportunities in a fragmented logistics market. XPO's cash-generative core business and attractive valuations further support this bullish outlook.
Did it work?
The long thesis on XPO Logistics decisively played out: the stock returned +179.7% over ~11 years, well above the stated ~115% upside to the $48 target (implying the price moved from roughly $22 to the low $60s). The thesis's drivers — strong leadership, cash generation, and growth in a fragmented logistics market — were validated by performance far exceeding the target. With the stated price target surpassed and a very long elapsed period, this is a clear success.