YPF S.A.
Thesis
YPF was mentioned as an oil company that had seen a decline in its stock price from $27 to $15, indicating a potential opportunity for recovery.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The thesis was a long bet that YPF, after falling from $27 to $15, was positioned for a recovery. The stock returned +234.7% since the pitch, far exceeding even a full recovery to the prior $27 level (~80% gain), decisively confirming the recovery thesis. Despite unknown elapsed time, the magnitude and direction of the gain leave little ambiguity that the thesis played out.