Valeant Pharmaceuticals International, Inc.
Thesis
Valeant Pharmaceuticals is viewed as a potential zero by some investors due to its aggressive financial engineering and reliance on acquisitions. The company has a high likelihood of facing bankruptcy, similar to past experiences with other heavily leveraged firms.
Did it work?
No price data or pitch timing is available, so this rests on whether the thesis events occurred. The core concern was substantially validated: Valeant's equity collapsed roughly 95% from its 2015 peak amid its debt crisis, and the company was forced into a distressed debt restructuring in 2018 (emerging as Bausch Health) that massively diluted shareholders. However, the thesis's central event — formal bankruptcy and equity going to zero — never happened, as the company survived through restructuring. Because the timing of the pitch and the actual short's return are unknown, confidence is low.