Nu Skin Enterprises, Inc.
Thesis
Nu Skin operates in a multi-level marketing structure that is inherently dangerous, especially when the business model relies on recruiting rather than product sales. The management is viewed as incompetent, and the company's products are not in demand, particularly in markets like China where consumers have limited disposable income. This raises concerns about the sustainability of the business.
Did it work?
Although no price data or pitch date is provided, the thesis's core claims were subsequently borne out: Nu Skin's China business deteriorated sharply, total revenue fell from roughly $3 billion at its 2013-2014 peak to under $2 billion, and the stock collapsed from triple digits in 2014 to single digits by 2024-2025, validating the sustainability concerns. The MLM/recruitment-dependence and weak-demand arguments align with this long-run deterioration. Confidence is low because the pitch timing is unknown and no actual return figures were supplied.