Alimentation Couche-Tard Inc.
Thesis
Alimentation Couche-Tard is positioned to outperform estimates due to recent acquisitions and favorable market conditions, including the need for over-levered US MLPs to sell assets and low oil prices prompting European oil companies to divest non-core assets. The company has a proven track record of making accretive acquisitions and can grow organically, providing a long runway for further consolidation in a fragmented market.
Did it work?
The stock delivered a +84.4% return since the pitch, strongly supporting the long thesis that Couche-Tard would outperform through accretive acquisitions and consolidation in a fragmented market. While the exact time elapsed is unknown, the magnitude of the gain is consistent with the thesis playing out substantially. Confidence is tempered slightly only because we cannot verify how much of the stated runway has elapsed.