International Business Machines Corporation
Thesis
The investor sold IBM as they became less comfortable with its long-term competitive advantage in enterprise due to the rise of Amazon AWS, and they prefer investments with multiple ways to win rather than path-dependent outcomes.
Did it work?
inconclusive
confidence: low
The thesis is a qualitative short based on AWS eroding IBM's enterprise competitive moat, but no price performance or time elapsed is provided, so the outcome of the short position cannot be verified. While cloud disruption of legacy enterprise IT is a real dynamic, nothing here decisively confirms the thesis played out or was invalidated for the position itself. Without return data or a confirmed catalyst, the judgement remains open.