Dollarama Inc.
Thesis
Dollarama is positioned for significant growth with a projected EPS increase to ~$10 over the next five years, driven by new store openings, same-store sales growth, and share buybacks. The market undervalues its potential, with a target price of C$225 based on a forward P/E of 19x, down from the current 26x.
Did it work?
failed
confidence: high
The thesis called for Dollarama to reach a C$225 target (~$10 EPS) over five years, and the full 64-month horizon has now elapsed. Instead of appreciating toward the target, the stock returned -6.9%, meaning investors lost money in absolute terms and dramatically underperformed the thesis's implied upside. The core claim that the market was undervaluing Dollarama's growth potential did not play out over the stated window.