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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Spring 2017

Yum China Holdings, Inc.

YUMC pitch long Windsor Cristobal, CFA, Anji Lin, Isabella Lin

Thesis

YUMC is at an inflection point with a unique buying opportunity due to stabilizing same store sales growth (SSSG) after years of volatility. The company has improved its food safety processes, has a strong consumer brand, and is well-positioned to benefit from digital and delivery trends, which will drive future growth. The valuation remains attractive with a target price of $45, offering a 35% upside.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The long thesis ultimately played out: YUMC returned +36.5% over the 112 months since the pitch, slightly exceeding the stated 35% upside to the $45 target, so both the direction and the price objective were achieved. That said, the re-rating took far longer than the 'inflection point' framing implied — roughly 3.5% annualized — suggesting the stabilizing SSSG and digital/delivery catalysts took many years to translate into the anticipated upside. With the full target reached and ample time elapsed, the verdict is positive despite the slow pace.