Harvey Norman Holdings Limited
Thesis
The thesis is based on the belief that Harvey Norman is overstating earnings and accumulating bad debt, particularly as franchise revenues and cash receipts have diverged significantly. The upcoming Australian Parliamentary Inquiry into the franchise industry and increased competition from Amazon are expected to exacerbate the company's challenges, leading to a potential decline in its stock price.
Did it work?
The short thesis called for a decline in Harvey Norman's share price driven by earnings-quality concerns, the franchising inquiry, and Amazon competition. Over the 100 months since the pitch, the stock fell 30.8%, a substantial move in the direction the short position needed, and the cited catalysts (the Australian parliamentary franchising inquiry and Amazon's Australian entry) did materialize during this period. With more than eight years elapsed, far beyond any reasonable thesis horizon, the directional outcome decisively supports the pitch.