C.H. Robinson Worldwide, Inc.
Thesis
C.H. Robinson is facing significant challenges from online travel platforms that are reducing demand for its services. The company's valuation is expected to compress as it misses consensus estimates, with projected EPS declining due to decreasing NAST spreads. A target price of $70 is set based on a 16x multiple applied to the estimated 2019 EPS of $4.31.
Did it work?
The short thesis called for valuation compression and declining EPS at C.H. Robinson, targeting $70. The stock fell 54.1% over ~8 years, decisively confirming the bearish direction and far exceeding the implied downside to the $70 target. While the thesis's specific framing (online platform disruption, NAST spread compression) can't be fully verified, the price outcome strongly validates the short call.