Spotify Technology, Inc.
Thesis
The pitch highlights concerns over Spotify's profitability and competitive position in the streaming market, suggesting that its current valuation is not justified given its financial metrics.
Did it work?
The short thesis decisively failed. A -279.4% return on a short position implies Spotify's stock appreciated roughly 279% over the ~8-year period (a price decline of that magnitude is impossible for a long stock), meaning the market strongly rejected the claim that the valuation was unjustified. Rather than collapsing, Spotify solidified its streaming market leadership and ultimately achieved sustained profitability, invalidating the core pillars of the bear case. With 100 months elapsed — far beyond any reasonable stated horizon — the verdict is clear.