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P Pitch Archive Stock pitches across investing competitions
← Fall 2017

Spirit AeroSystems Holdings, Inc.

SPR pitch long Madina Baikadamova, Sowan Cha, Jean Cui, Claudine Fernandez

Thesis

We are long on Spirit Aerosystems (SPR) with an end of 2017 price target of $72, offering 31% upside from 11/11/2016's price of $55.02. The investment thesis is supported by favorable industry dynamics, high customer captivity due to exclusive contracts, and growing profitability from maturing programs like the Boeing 787 and A350XWB.

Did it work?

failed confidence: high

The long thesis called for a $72 target by end of 2017 (~31% upside), but SPR has collapsed 92% since the pitch — a catastrophic loss far exceeding the stated one-year horizon, which has long since elapsed. The thesis pillars of maturing 787/A350XWB profitability and favorable industry dynamics were decisively invalidated, as Spirit instead suffered severe program losses, quality/production crises with key customers, and ultimately a distressed sale to Boeing. This is a clear failure with high confidence.