Alphabet Inc.
Thesis
We bought Google in 2012 at a very attractive valuation of around 9-10x forward EV to EBITDA and 12-13x forward earnings. It was compounding its value at over 20%, and we believe it continues to compound its intrinsic value at a rapid rate.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis on Google decisively played out: the stock returned +3548.3% over roughly 14.6 years, an annualized return of approximately 27-28%, which exceeds even the thesis's claim of 20%+ intrinsic value compounding. The entry valuation of 9-10x forward EV/EBITDA proved genuinely attractive, and the business sustained rapid value creation far beyond the stated compounding rate. With the full horizon elapsed and returns validating every element of the thesis, this is a clear success.