Itochu Corporation
Thesis
Itochu is fundamentally different from other Japanese trading companies, showing consistent earnings growth of 10% annually for 15 years and generating low-teens returns on equity. Their diverse portfolio includes strong brands and capital-light franchise businesses, making them a compelling long-term investment.
Did it work?
The long thesis on Itochu has clearly played out: over the ~86 months since the pitch the stock returned +119.2% (roughly 11-12% annualized), more than doubling and validating the 'compelling long-term investment' framing. The magnitude of the return is consistent with the thesis's core claim that Itochu's superior earnings growth and low-teens ROE would differentiate it from other Japanese trading houses. With over seven years elapsed and the price performance strongly confirming the stated direction, the thesis can be judged a success with high confidence.