UniCredit S.p.A.
Thesis
UniCredit has undergone significant restructuring under new management, which has improved its balance sheet by addressing non-performing loans. This restructuring has lowered risk, reduced the cost of equity, and increased return on equity, making it a compelling investment opportunity.
Did it work?
The thesis's core claims align with UniCredit's documented turnaround: successive new management (Mustier, then Orcel) executed NPL disposals, balance-sheet clean-up, and cost restructuring, and the bank's profitability and return on equity materially improved, consistent with the thesis dynamics. However, with no price performance data and an unknown elapsed time, the actual investment return cannot be verified, so this judgement rests on the fundamental events having occurred rather than on measured returns.