Farfetch Limited
Thesis
Farfetch is positioned to capture a larger share of the luxury goods market, which is expected to grow significantly. Despite current concerns about its high take rate, the company's growth trajectory and potential to reach a 5.3% market share by 2030 suggest substantial upside. The valuation indicates a target price of $40, representing a 48% upside over three years.
Did it work?
The long thesis called for a 48% upside to $40 over three years, but instead the stock collapsed roughly 99% in 28 months, wiping out nearly all shareholder value as Farfetch's liquidity crisis culminated in a rescue deal that left equity holders with almost nothing. This is a decisive invalidation of the growth and market-share thesis, regardless of the remaining time in the stated horizon. The magnitude and nature of the decline (near-total loss) leaves no ambiguity that the pitch failed.