FedEx Corporation
Thesis
Baker mentions that despite projecting certain outcomes for FedEx that did not materialize, the investment still yielded a return of 7-8% per year over 7-8 years, indicating a long-term positive outlook even in the face of mistakes.
Did it work?
The thesis is retrospective and asserts that the long position in FedEx compounded at roughly 7-8% per year over 7-8 years, a positive outcome consistent with the long direction even though some specific projections did not materialize. Since the stated horizon (7-8 years) is fully covered by the claim and the core thesis — a durable long-term positive return despite mistakes — is described as having occurred, the thesis appears to have played out. However, with no independent price data available, this rests entirely on the thesis's own account, so confidence is low.