AXA S.A.
Thesis
AXA is positioned well in the property and casualty market, which is currently experiencing price increases in the 20% range in the US and mid-teens elsewhere. This pricing power should help offset any COVID-related losses, making it an attractive investment opportunity.
Did it work?
The core thesis events largely materialized: the P&C market entered a sustained hard market, with commercial pricing increases broadly in line with the cited ranges, and COVID-related losses proved manageable for P&C insurers rather than catastrophic, allowing pricing power to offset claims. AXA's P&C franchise performed solidly through this period, consistent with the thesis. However, with no price performance data and unknown elapsed time, the investment outcome cannot be verified, so confidence remains low.