Carnival Corporation
Thesis
Ray Kennedy believes that travel, particularly cruises, will eventually return to normal levels, similar to past recoveries after events like 9/11. He suggests that buying secured bonds from cruise companies could be a good investment opportunity as the industry rebounds.
Did it work?
The core thesis event — cruise and travel demand returning to normal after the pandemic shock — did occur, with the cruise industry rebounding strongly by 2023-2024 and reporting bookings and revenues at or above pre-pandemic levels, consistent with the historical recovery pattern Kennedy cited. Cruise companies' secured bonds issued at distressed levels during the downturn also recovered substantially as credit conditions normalized. However, with no specific bond price data or timing provided, the magnitude of the return cannot be verified, so confidence is limited.