Etsy Inc

ETSY pitch long Neuberger Berman ESG Challenge Team

Thesis

We project a higher growth in the number of buyers for Etsy, estimating a low-twenties CAGR compared to the market's mid-teens CAGR. Our valuation suggests a target price of $86 based on a forward EV/EBITDA multiple of 13x, indicating a potential 76% return over four years.

Did it work?

worked confidence: high

The stock price has increased by 125.9% since the pitch, significantly exceeding the projected target price of $86 and the estimated 76% return over four years. Given that 88 months is well beyond the four-year horizon stated in the thesis, this performance indicates that the thesis played out successfully.

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