Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Thesis
PTON faces significant competition with no moat, particularly from SoulCycle, which is launching a connected bike product. The projected revenue for 2024 is $2.9 billion, significantly lower than the consensus of $5.2 billion, leading to a base case price target of $7, representing a 76% upside for the short position. The analysis indicates a low probability of PTON succeeding as a gym replacement, with a potential downside of 253% if it reaches 8 million subscribers.
Did it work?
Without specific price performance data or a defined time frame since the pitch, it's unclear whether the thesis has played out. The competitive landscape and revenue projections mentioned in the thesis could still be valid, but without concrete evidence of price movement or subscriber metrics, we cannot determine the outcome. Therefore, the confidence in this assessment is low.
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