Peloton Interactive, Inc.
Thesis
PTON faces significant competition with no moat, particularly from SoulCycle, which is launching a connected bike product. The projected revenue for 2024 is $2.9 billion, significantly lower than the consensus of $5.2 billion, leading to a base case price target of $7, representing a 76% upside for the short position. The analysis indicates a low probability of PTON succeeding as a gym replacement, with a potential downside of 253% if it reaches 8 million subscribers.
Did it work?
No measured price performance is provided, but the thesis's core events largely materialized: SoulCycle did launch its connected bike, and Peloton's revenue subsequently collapsed to roughly $2.7-2.9 billion by fiscal 2024, far below the $5.2 billion consensus cited in the pitch, validating the bearish revenue call. The stock also crashed from triple digits to below the $7 base-case target during 2022-2024, meaning the short thesis played out decisively. Confidence is low only because the pitch date and actual measured return are unavailable.