Greek Government Bonds
Thesis
Paul B. Kazarian highlighted his investment in Greek government bonds, which resulted in an 8.9 times multiple on capital invested at exit and a 35% IRR after about 5 years with no leverage.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: low
The thesis is retrospective and self-confirming: it describes a completed long investment in Greek government bonds that was exited at an 8.9x multiple of capital and a 35% IRR over roughly five years with no leverage. The stated thesis events — a highly profitable long position held to a successful exit — are reported as having fully occurred, so the thesis played out. However, because no independent price data is available to verify the reported returns, confidence is limited.