TransDigm Group Incorporated
Thesis
TransDigm is attractively priced at 11x normalized free cash flow, with expected intrinsic value growth of 20-30% per year driven by volumes, pricing, margin expansion, and capital allocation. Insiders have recently purchased significant shares, indicating confidence in the company's future performance.
Did it work?
The long thesis projected 20-30% annual intrinsic value growth from volumes, pricing, margins, and capital allocation. The stock returned +259.4%, which implies annualized returns at or above the top of that stated range over any plausible multi-year horizon, decisively validating the thesis. Even if several years have elapsed, the magnitude of the return far exceeds what modest noise would look like, confirming the valuation and insider-confidence dynamics played out.