Sysco Corporation
Thesis
Sysco is positioned to benefit from a once-in-a-lifetime industry consolidation opportunity due to its strong balance sheet and capacity to withstand significant declines in revenue. The company is expected to capture market share from under-capitalized competitors forced to exit the market as a result of COVID-19 impacts. The price target is $92, representing a 73% upside.
Did it work?
The long thesis on Sysco played out: the stock returned +77.7% over 76 months, exceeding the stated price target of $92 (73% upside) both in direction and magnitude. The COVID-driven consolidation thesis — Sysco using its balance sheet strength to capture share from weakened competitors — is consistent with this sustained outperformance, and the multi-year elapsed period is well beyond any reasonable horizon for the thesis to have matured.