Uber Technologies, Inc.
Thesis
I recommend UBER as a long with an intrinsic value of $106 per share, translating to 41% upside, 29% margin of safety, and a 2.0x reward-to-risk ratio weighed against my downside case. UBER has sold off ~25% from October 2025 highs due to autonomous vehicle (AV) disruption fears, but I believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of negative AV outcomes and underappreciates Uber’s critical role in the AV ecosystem and the strength of its core business.
Did it work?
Without specific price performance data or a defined time frame since the pitch, it's difficult to assess whether the thesis has played out. The intrinsic value estimate and the concerns about AV disruption are valid points, but without knowing how the stock has performed or if any key events have occurred, I cannot determine the outcome of the investment thesis.
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