Uber Technologies, Inc.
Thesis
I recommend UBER as a long with an intrinsic value of $106 per share, translating to 41% upside, 29% margin of safety, and a 2.0x reward-to-risk ratio weighed against my downside case. UBER has sold off ~25% from October 2025 highs due to autonomous vehicle (AV) disruption fears, but I believe the market is overestimating the likelihood of negative AV outcomes and underappreciates Uber’s critical role in the AV ecosystem and the strength of its core business.
Did it work?
The pitch is a valuation-driven long on UBER with a $106 intrinsic value target predicated on the market overreacting to AV disruption fears. With no price performance data and unknown time elapsed, there is no way to verify whether the stock recovered toward the target, whether AV fears subsided, or whether Uber's core business strength played out as expected. Without either price confirmation or observable thesis events, the outcome cannot be judged.