Alphabet Inc.
Thesis
Alphabet is under-earning in certain areas due to cyclical factors, such as travel, and investments through the income statement in projects like Waymo and Verily.
Did it work?
inconclusive
confidence: low
The thesis is a long earnings-recovery argument: Alphabet's under-earning in cyclical areas like travel and its income-statement investments (Waymo, Verily) should normalize, unlocking value. No price performance is available and no time horizon is stated, and there is no evidence provided on whether travel rebounded or investment spending was reined in. Without either a return figure or confirmation that the thesis's specific catalysts occurred, the outcome cannot be judged.