Live Nation Entertainment, Inc.
Thesis
Live Nation is expected to recover strongly post-COVID due to its dominant position in the arena business and the anticipated increase in ticket sales as events resume. The company has a robust cash flow and can make strategic acquisitions of distressed promoters and venues, enhancing its market position. The bull case suggests a target price of $125, reflecting a 119% upside based on long-term growth potential and increased pricing power.
Did it work?
worked
confidence: high
The long thesis played out well: Live Nation returned +153.8% over 67 months, exceeding the bull-case target of $125 (implying ~119% upside). The post-COVID recovery in live events and ticket sales materialized, validating the core thesis dynamics of strong demand recovery and pricing power.