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← Winter 2021

Keraben Grupo

null position long Arthur Young, Tensile Capital Management

Thesis

Keraben Grupo was acquired at an attractive valuation of approximately 4.9x EBITDA, significantly lower than its competitor Mohawk at 11.5x. The investment involved a turnaround plan that led to substantial revenue growth and margin expansion, yielding a >6x return over a three-year holding period.

Did it work?

worked confidence: low

The thesis is framed as a completed case study: Keraben Grupo was acquired at ~4.9x EBITDA (a discount to Mohawk's 11.5x), and the stated turnaround produced revenue growth, margin expansion, and a >6x return over the three-year holding period. Since the thesis events — the value entry point and the successful turnaround exit — are described as having occurred, the long thesis played out as stated. However, with no independent price data or time elapsed available, this verdict rests entirely on the thesis's own claims, so confidence is low.